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Keybot 41 Résultats  cfs.nrcan.gc.ca  Page 5
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On a choisi les projections du climat futur pour quatre modèles de circulation générale (MCG) bien établis, forcés selon trois scénarios d’émissions de gaz à effet de serre (GES) recommandés par le Groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur l’évolution du climat (GIEC), soit les scénarios A2, A1B et B1 définis dans le Rapport spécial sur les scénarios d’émissions du GIEC.
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Projections of future climate were selected for four well-established general circulation models (GCMs) forced by each of three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), namely scenarios A2, A1B, and B1 of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Monthly data for the period 1961–2100 were downloaded mainly from the web portal of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 3) of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, and subsets of data covering North America were extracted. Scenario data sets were produced for monthly mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, and vapor pressure. All variables were expressed as changes relative to the simulated monthly means for 1961–1990, which corrected for GCM bias in reproducing past climate and allowed future projected trends to be compared directly. The downscaling procedure used the ANUSPLIN software package to fit a two-dimensional spline function to each month’s change data for each climate variable at a spatial resolution of 5 arcminutes (0.0833º) longitude and latitude. The resulting scenarios were surprisingly consistent, with differences resulting from different GHG forcings being generally greater than those resulting from different GCMs, although the consistency varied spatially. The A2 emissions scenario invariably generated the greatest warming by 2100, and the B1 scenario the least. Canada’s far north was projected to undergo the greatest regional increases in temperature and precipitation, and the southeast and west coastal regions the least, with intermediate warming in midcontinental regions. All models projected increases in precipitation that were generally correlated with the projected increases in temperature, although with greater differences in spatial and seasonal patterns. Changes in vapor pressure were similarly correlated with changes in temperature and precipitation, whereas solar radiation was projected to decline slightly in regions where the increase in precipitation was particularly pronounced. Gridded data sets will be made available as a resource to researchers and others needing high-resolution data for studies of the impacts of climate change. A companion report and data set will be issued by the US Department of Agriculture Forest Service for the continental United States and Alaska.
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Les mousses utilisent le dioxyde de carbone, un gaz à effet de serre (GES), pour croître, et elles l’emmagasinent sous forme de carbone pendant de longues périodes, ce qui entraîne une diminution des GES.
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Live and dead moss layers occur in many of Canada’s forests and can contain large amounts of carbon. Carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, is used by mosses to grow and is stored as carbon in mosses for a long time, which reduces greenhouse gases. Mosses can also burn in forest fires and add to greenhouse gases. The computer model that calculates the amount of carbon and the greenhouse gas balance for Canada’s managed forests does not include mosses; we wanted to know if including mosses would improve the model’s ability to calculate the total amount of carbon in forests where mosses occur. We found that it did, especially if separate calculations were used for different types of mosses. This work is an important first step towards including mosses in the computer model to better calculate the contribution of mosses in forests to the greenhouse gas balance of Canada.
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Le boisement constitue l'un des nombreux moyens qui permettent de capturer le dioxyde de carbone et de diminuer les concentrations de gaz à effet de serre (GES). Nous avons élaboré un modèle spatial de simulation fondé sur la méthode de Monte Carlo, soit le modèle de faisabilité du boisement—Service canadien des forêts, afin d'évaluer l'attrait financier du boisement comme moyen de stockage du carbone au Canada.
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Afforestation is one of several possible mechanisms available to sequester carbon and help reduce greenhouse gas concentrations. We have developed a spatial Monte Carlo-based simulation model, Canadian Forest Service—Afforestation Feasibility Model (CFS-AFM) to help assess the financial attractiveness of afforestation as a means of carbon storage in Canada. The model tracks five carbon pools and simulates costs and benefits of plantation investments. In this paper we simulate three afforestation scenarios that could be used in Canada; plantations using hybrid poplar, hardwoods, and softwoods with average growth rates of 14 and 6–7 m3/ha/year, respectively. The attractiveness of afforestation is driven by regional cost and plantation productivity variation and carbon price expectations. The results indicate that afforestation would be an attractive investment in many areas of the country at carbon prices of $10 per metric ton of CO2 or higher. However, with a zero carbon price, very little afforestation would be financially viable. Thus, with low carbon price expectations, other co-benefits may be required to make afforestation more attractive to Canadian investors.
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