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  Avanços significatius d...  
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En aquest con­­text, el Banc del Japó no va moure fitxa en la reunió del juny (abans del referèndum del Regne Unit), tot i que és molt probable que la institució monetària opti per incrementar les compres d'actius (ara en els 80 bilions de iens anuals) en la reunió de juliol, en especial després de les turbulències financeres provocades per la decisió del Regne Unit.
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Japan postpones its VAT hike planned for April 2017 (from 8% to 10%) until October 2019, given the country's persistent weakness in domestic demand, deflationary tensions and doubts regarding growth in China. This delay indicates better growth prospects for the Japanese economy in 2017 (now at +0.9%). Given this situation, the Bank of Japan made no changes at its June meeting (before the UK referendum) although the monetary institution is very likely to decide to increase asset purchases (now totalling 80 trillion yen a year) at its July meeting, particularly after the financial turbulence caused by the United Kingdom's decision.
  L'enigma de Greenspan d...  
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La fase d'enduriment monetari del 2004 va truncar la pauta de les anteriors. Malgrat les ràpides pujades del tipus oficial, el TLT gairebé no es va moure. Diversos estudis han mostrat que el component discordant amb els cicles previs va ser la PRT, que, en aquesta ocasió, va baixar sensiblement (de l'ordre d'1 p. p.) i va contrarestar la pujada que, ajustant-se al guió, va experimentar el TRCTE (mentre que les EILT es mantenien estables).
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The phase of tougher monetary policy in 2004 put a stop to these earlier trends. In spite of rapid rises in the official rate, the LTR hardly moved at all. Several studies have shown that the component that evolved differently compared with previous cycles was the TRP, on that occasion falling noticeably (by around 1 pps), counteracting the rise, as per the script, experienced by the RESTR (while the LTIE remained stable). Greenspan's conundrum therefore lay in the term premium, a variable whose importance grows when market imperfections intensify (the limits to arbitrage between maturities). The fundamental forces leading to this drop in the term premium are now well-known: excessive global savings, the accumulation of reserves by the central banks of many countries, a search for safe assets and, as a result, strong demand for long-term US Treasury bonds which was not passed on to shorter terms.
  Les economies avançades...  
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Malgrat les turbulències financeres, l'expansió de les economies avançades segueix el seu curs. Al juliol i a l'agost, la situació econòmica ha tendit a moure's d'acord amb el que s'esperava a la majoria de països avançats, però no als emergents.
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The advanced economies have continued to grow in spite of financial turmoil. Developments in the economic situation in July and August tended to be in line with expectations for most advanced countries although this was not the case of the emerging economies. The doubts affecting the biggest of these, namely China, are precisely one of the factors underlying recent episodes of volatility in financial markets. The publication of activity indicators that confirm the Chinese economy has slowed down more than predicted has led the country's authorities to devalue the yuan but, far from having a calming effect on investors, this decision has further fuelled their concerns regarding the actual state of the economy, in turn leading to several volatile episodes that have affected the stock markets, emerging currencies and commodities. The outcome of these episodes has been a relatively widespread correction in risk assets. For example, in August the US stock market was down by 6.3% and the Eurostoxx 50, by 9.2%, although these drops were smaller than the corrections seen in the Shanghai stock exchange (–12.5%) and oil prices (–14.9%). The fact that Russia and Brazil's recessions have worsened has amplified mistrust towards emerging economies in general.
  L'enigma de Greenspan d...  
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Quan el banc central modifica el tipus oficial a curt termini (o comunica la seva estratègia i els seus plans de política monetària), cadascun d'aquests tres components és susceptible de moure's a l'alça o a la baixa, sota la influència també, evidentment, d'altres forces o xocs.
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Conceptually, the long-term interest rate or LTR, for example 10 years, has three components. First, the real short-term rate expected by market participants as an average for the next ten years (RESTR). Second, the long-term inflation expectations, at 10 years, of these participants (LTIE). And third, the term risk premium (TRP) demanded to invest in bonds with long maturities rather than successively investing in short-term bonds. When the central bank modifies the official short-term rate (or announces its strategy and monetary policy plans), each of these three components is likely to move either upwards or downwards, obviously also depending on other forces or shocks. While the Fed was tightening up its monetary policy in 1988, 1994 and 1999, the LTR rose noticeably, pushed up both by the RESTR (because market participants took the Fed's message on board that it was willing and able to maintain a higher level for the short-term rate) as well as the TRP (given the greater uncertainty regarding the level and volatility of short-term rates in the near future). The LTIE component would have moved downwards (as the Fed was committed to combating inflation) but with less impact due to the anchoring of expectations since credible inflation targets had been set.
  La Reserva Federal obre...  
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Primera pujada de tipus als EUA des del 2006. La Reserva Federal (Fed) finalment va moure fitxa i va apujar el tipus de referència en el que és el primer augment en gairebé una dècada. Malgrat que es tractava d'un tensionament descomptat pels mercats, és un pas significatiu cap a la plena normalització monetària als EUA.
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The first interest rate hike in the US since 2006. The Federal Reserve (Fed) finally made a move and raised its benchmark interest rate in which was the first hike in almost a decade. Although this tightening up of monetary policy had already been discounted by the markets, it is still a significant step forward towards full normalisation in the US. The country's economic conditions have justified tightening up monetary policy for some time, as the expansion can now be considered consolidated (in Q3 the economy grew by a reasonable 2.1% year-on-year), the labour market has posted a healthy job creation rate for several months and inflation looks like rising in the future. However the Fed delayed its decision because it believed that external financial uncertainty required a more prudent approach; at least this is how it justified keeping interest rates the same at its September and October meetings. But once the summer's episode of strong financial volatility diminished, thanks largely to more encouraging activity figures from China, India, Mexico and other emerging countries of note, the Fed raised its benchmark rate by 25 bps. In principle we can expect a gradual rise that will not lead to any sudden changes in global liquidity conditions (particularly if we consider that both the ECB and Bank of Japan are continuing their quantitative easing). Nonetheless, we will have to keep a close eye on the trend in financial flows, especially towards the fragile emerging economies (Turkey, Brazil and South Africa would form part of this group), which have already shown signs of being sensitive to episodes of financial uncertainty.