|
Should the current change in China's growth pattern have an effect on its copper consumption more closely in line with its development stage, demand for the metal could fall considerably which, in turn, would push its price down. But it is also true that Brazil, Indonesia and India could increase their consumption, offsetting the Chinese correction. These three countries are likely to increase their copper consumption not only due to the expected improvement in their per capita income in the medium term but also, and especially, because of their need to resolve existing bottlenecks in infrastructures. In fact, the IMF has stated that these bottlenecks are a pressing problem in Brazil and India (the world's second demographic power, approaching China's population of 1.3 billion). Consequently, according to our estimates Brazil, Indonesia and particularly India could offset around 70% of the fall in China's demand for copper.
|