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La població urbana que viurà en la categoria de grans ciutats (de 5 a 10 milions d'habitants) passarà del 7,7% actual al 8,6%, i del 21,3% al 22,3% a les ciutats mitjanes (d'1 a 5 milions d'habitants). En canvi, les àrees menors, d'un milió d'habitants o menys, concentraran una mica menys de població: si, el 2014, la taxa era del 59,3%, el 2030, serà del 54,7%.
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But will the nature of cities change to any great extent? Are we moving towards a world of megacities? According to the United Nations, the distribution of the future will be similar to the current distribution albeit with a greater trend towards large agglomerations. Looking at a somewhat nearer timescale, by 2030 the percentage of the urban population living in megacities (i.e. with over 10 million inhabitants) will be 14.4% of the total urban population, somewhat higher than the figure of 11.7% of 2014. In 2030 there will be 41 megacities, four of them European: by ranking of population, Istanbul, Moscow, Paris and London. The urban population living in the large city category (from 5 to 10 million inhabitants) will go from the current figure of 7.7% to 8.6%, and from 21.3% to 22.3% for medium-sized cities (from 1 to 5 million inhabitants). However, smaller urban areas of one million inhabitants or fewer will house a smaller share of the population: whereas in 2014 the rate was 59.3% by 2030 it will be 54.7%.
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