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L’augmentation des aides pour les retraités et des allocations familiales, la progression de l’emploi, celle des salaires favorisée par la baisse de la population active, et une nouvelle hausse du salaire minimum devraient compenser la hausse des droits indirects sur l’alcool, le tabac, le carburant et l’hôtellerie-restauration.
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After two years of subdued economic growth, because of the collapse of the Russian market and the impact on public spending of the interruption in European funding between two programmes, activity is expected to accelerate in 2017. Household consumption (53% of GDP) will continue to be the main growth driver. The increase in pensioner benefits and family allowances, rising employment, higher wages resulting from a decline in the economically active population and another increase in the minimum wage are expected to offset the hike in indirect taxes on alcohol, tobacco, fuel and the accommodation services. With the return of European funding, public infrastructure investment will continue its recovery, as will private investment in equipment because of the high production capacity utilisation rate in response to strong external demand, which absorbs 70% of industrial production. Moreover, businesses are enjoying tax exemption on their reinvested profits. Exporters finally digested the impact of the Russian recession and counter-sanctions. Dairy products, fish and alcohol, which Russia was fond of, have found substitute markets, in Scandinavia, but also outside Europe, helped by the depreciation of the euro. Wood, unprocessed wood or as wooden parts for housing construction, furniture and bedding have found buyers in Denmark and Sweden but could be hit by the depreciation of UK sterling. The Swedish company, Ericsson, continues to buy Estonian telecommunications equipment. Dwindling numbers of Russian and Finnish tourists are to a large extent offset by higher numbers of German, Lithuanian, Norwegian and Asian visitors. In contrast, rail and road transport is suffering from the drop in equipment transhipment to Russia, especially with Russia favouring its own ports.
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