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We expect gross domestic product in 2012 will drop slightly. In December, the European Central Bank has cut its intervention rate by 0.25 percent, and we expect 2012 other cuts. The slow economic growth in the euro zone growth hides considerable differences among the member countries.

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The European economy has significantly slowed down over the past two quarters. We look for GDP to contract slightly in 2012. The European Central Bank has cut its policy interest rate by a further 0.25% in December, and we expect further reductions in 2012. The sluggish rate of economic growth across the euro area masks notable growth differences between member countries. We expect Germany, Finland, Austria and other so-called ‘core’ countries to outperform growth in southern countries such as Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal. The main reasons for this growth divergence are (a) differences in economic competitiveness (b) the degree to which the government and parts of the private sector are indebted and (c) the differing nature of the financial market shocks. The prevalence of substantial current account deficits still in Greece, Portugal and Spain is an indication that further significant adjustment is needed, given these countries’ substantial levels of externally held debt. Government financing costs vary substantially between core countries and the southern countries. For example, in Italy, the two-year government funding costs exceeded 7% in November before falling to the current level near 6%. Comparable German rates are hovering around 0.3%. Consequently, businesses in Italy and other southern countries will also face substantially higher funding costs relative to their German, Dutch or Austrian peers. Companies considering future growth of their businesses are likely to be cautious towards investing in southern Europe until governments are able to demonstrate control over fiscal policy and substantial economic liberalisations. The causes of weak growth in the euro area and the divergence between countries are numerous and intertwined. That said, these are the most important underlying causes at present: Foreign demand growth has slowed considerably in the past few quarters: the sharp rise in global inflation pressures in the first half of 2011 eroded real purchasing power of consumers. Also, rising interest rates impacted global demand adversely, particularly in most large emerging markets. This slowdown in foreign demand was particularly notable in leading euro area export economies such as Germany and is well documented in, for instance, German factory orders (Figure 1). Over the summer and autumn, it became evident that Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece and France had to announce additional austerity measures to address rising investor concerns a

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