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Keybot 6 Results  www.coface.com  Page 7
  Energie / Etudes éco...  
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L’offre de pétrole doit augmenter de 1% en 2017, selon l’AIE, après une hausse de 0,2% en 2016, soit 97,01 mb/j. Selon l’AIE, les dépenses en investissement dans l’exploration et la production ont chuté de 25% pour les années 2015 et 2016, sans compter les fortes réductions des coûts opérationnels : plus de 35% entre 2014 et 2016.
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Oil supply is expected to increase by 1% in 2017 according to the IEA, after an increase of 0.2% in 2016, or 97.01m bpd. The IEA estimates that investment spending in exploration and production plummeted 25% in 2015 and 2016, not to mention the sharp reductions in operating costs of more than 35% between 2014 and 2016. The various measures taken should reduce extraction capacity and therefore wipe out growth in crude oil production.
  Energie / Etudes éco...  
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L’offre de pétrole doit augmenter de 1% en 2017, selon l’AIE, après une hausse de 0,2% en 2016, soit 97,01 mb/j. Selon l’AIE, les dépenses en investissement dans l’exploration et la production ont chuté de 25% pour les années 2015 et 2016, sans compter les fortes réductions des coûts opérationnels : plus de 35% entre 2014 et 2016.
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Oil supply is expected to increase by 1% in 2017 according to the IEA, after an increase of 0.2% in 2016, or 97.01m bpd. The IEA estimates that investment spending in exploration and production plummeted 25% in 2015 and 2016, not to mention the sharp reductions in operating costs of more than 35% between 2014 and 2016. The various measures taken should reduce extraction capacity and therefore wipe out growth in crude oil production.
  Energie / Etudes éco...  
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En Asie, les marges de raffinage (Dubai hydrocracking) atteignaient 2,9 $/baril en moyenne durant le mois d’août 2016, en baisse de 1,15$ depuis juillet 2016. Les demandes chinoise et coréenne expliquent cette méforme, car elles-mêmes sont soit en phase de contraction, soit en ralentissement.
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In Asia, refining margins (Dubai hydrocracking) reached $2.9/b on average in August 2016, down $1.15 since July 2016. Chinese and Korean demand explained this downturn, since this is also narrowing, if not slowing. Chinese demand is expected to grow very slightly in 2017, to 11.8m bpd from 11.6 million in 2016. Korean demand is also set to show slow growth in 2017, of around 2.7% to reach 2.6m bpd vs. 2.5m bpd in 2016 on IEA estimates and forecasts. Indian demand looks set to grow by 7.5% in 2017.
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Selon l’AIE, la demande en produits pétroliers aux Etats-Unis devrait croître légèrement de 1,1% en 2016 et de 0,6% en 2017. La raison la plus citée pour justifier cette croissance faible est le probable remontée des cours.
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According to the IEA, demand for oil products in the US should notch up slightly by 1.1% in 2016 and 0.6% in 2017. The reason most cited for this low growth is the likely increase in oil prices. Coface estimates that Brent prices should average $51.3/b in 2017 vs. $43.6/b in 2016. In addition, the production capacity utilisation rate at end-July 2016 was 91% vs. 94% a year-earlier, according to the IEA. Despite the decline in this rate, margins have all widened, from $9.90/b in July 2016 to $14.26/b at end-August 2016 for WTI Cracking. Attention should be paid to how harsh the winter is (probably caused by the El Niña climate phenomenon) as well as to industrial activity.
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Selon l’AIE, la demande en produits pétroliers aux Etats-Unis devrait croître légèrement de 1,1% en 2016 et de 0,6% en 2017. La raison la plus citée pour justifier cette croissance faible est le probable remontée des cours.
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According to the IEA, demand for oil products in the US should notch up slightly by 1.1% in 2016 and 0.6% in 2017. The reason most cited for this low growth is the likely increase in oil prices. Coface estimates that Brent prices should average $51.3/b in 2017 vs. $43.6/b in 2016. In addition, the production capacity utilisation rate at end-July 2016 was 91% vs. 94% a year-earlier, according to the IEA. Despite the decline in this rate, margins have all widened, from $9.90/b in July 2016 to $14.26/b at end-August 2016 for WTI Cracking. Attention should be paid to how harsh the winter is (probably caused by the El Niña climate phenomenon) as well as to industrial activity.
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La demande en Europe devrait décroître légèrement en 2017, atteignant 13,7 mb/j selon l’AIE. Les raffineries (NWE Brent cracking) ont pu profiter de la forte baisse des cours depuis juin 2014 pour améliorer leurs marges.
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Demand in Europe is likely to fall slightly in 2017, reaching 13.7m bpd on IEA figures. Refineries (NWE Brent cracking) have managed to benefit from the plunge in prices since June 2014 to improve their margins. However, these have stabilised at around $3/b. For 2016, we expect a decline of 5.7% in European refinery production to 11.6m bpd, given the maintenance undertaken in October. The start to 2017 is also set to see less robust output, continuing on the end-2016 trend, with growth in production of 2% reaching 11.4m bpd. One of the unknowns that could have a positive effect on consumer spending is how harsh the winter is, given high energy consumption during the period. Furthermore, changes in industrial activity in Europe should remain a key factor, since this prompted a 130k bpd plunge in consumption of oil products during summer 2016, and the trend is likely to be the same in Q3 2016, with an equivalent plunge in consumption of diesel, petrol and other fuels.