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Some groups believe that long-term oil prices could trend downwards, due to gains in energy efficiencies, weaker than expected oil demand, and falling production costs due to technological advancement. One of the biggest uncertainties in this regard would be around the potential for greenhouse gas emissions regulations. The IEA envisages a scenario where new emissions regulations in various countries put downward pressure on crude oil and petroleum product demand. Such a scenario, if realized, could result in significantly lower crude oil prices over the long-term, as is shown in the IEA’s “450 Scenario”.
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