|
|
C'est vrai que les mouvements d'opposition irakiens ont des problèmes internes. Ils n'ont pas atteint un consensus au sujet d'un Irak post-Saddam Hussein. Il y a toujours ces clivages d'ordre ethnique, d'ordre régional et d'ordre confessionnel, mais il semble qu'au cours des derniers jours ou même des dernières heures, des médiateurs américains ont fini par préparer une plateforme pour rallier ces mouvements d'opposition, en insistant pour qu'il y ait simplement 300 délégués irakiens.
|
|
|
With respect to opposition movements, Canadian diplomacy should also take into account the move toward a post-Westphalian world. In other words, the state is no longer sovereign. In any case, if the Security Council resolution has done anything, it is to strip Iraq of its sovereignty. Iraq is now under almost full guardianship. And Mr. Blix may certainly be the sole person to decide on peace or war issues pertaining to Iraq. I would even say that opposition movements in Iraq must be listened to by diplomats, such as Canadian diplomats. It is quite true that opposition movement in Iraq have their internal problems. And they have not reached a consensus on post-Saddam Iraq. There are still ethnic, regional and religious splits in the country, but it seems that in the last few days, or even the last few hours, U.S. mediators have finally managed to come up with a platform that can rally the opposition movements, insisting that there will be only 300 Iraqi delegates. Ahmed Chalabi's chances are now better than before. Efforts are being made to calm the Arabo-Sunni core, which has always governed Iraq and is on the verge of loosing central power to the Shiite majority. The Shiites themselves have sent out some interesting messages, and those messages would have to be decoded fairly quickly. They imply that Iran is neutral—that is a fairly positive neutrality—to an overthrow of the Iraqi regime. No one in Iran wants to shed tears over those who started a war against them. Secondly, the most prominent Shiite players have already indicated that the only scenario they would not accept is invasion and full occupation of Iraq, along with the imposition of a MacArthur-style U.S. leader, who would be set up as a shogun in Iraq. There is no shogun in Iraq. Unfortunately, there is just a system where power alternates between dictators.
|