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The plans for expansion of sugar production in Sudan, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia and Tanzania will potentially bring enormous new volumes of sugar onto the market, volumes which could by 2012 make the management of the EU transitional sugar regime highly problematical. This of course will be critically dependent on how much of this sugar is destined for the EU market and the extent to which the current plans are realised. Certainly the plans to expand production in Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania and Zambia by over 600,000 tonnes appear realisable, with clear marketing channels into the EU. Ethiopia’s plans to expand production by over 700,000 tonnes appear less certain, with as yet no major foreign investors stepping forward to work with the government on the realisation of these plans. Sudan’s production plans have attracted investment, mainly from Gulf sources, and thus it seems likely that Sudanese raw-sugar production will primarily feed into the newly established Gulf refineries. Nevertheless, even if a small proportion of the planned expansion, for example 15%; were to find its way to the EU market then this could well require the invocation of the transitional safeguard clause.
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