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At this stage, the surest consequences are to national budgets. Although the EC announced that it will give accurate analysis of the effect of refugees on public spending only after it announces the budget analyses of the member states in the euro area, few things are already visible in the autumn economic forecast. For Germany for instance, the EC points out that, regardless of refugees spending, the budget will continue to generate a surplus of 0.9% of GDP in 2015. By the end of the forecast period, however, (2017) refugees spending is expected to grow, but there is no exact data. The greatest part of spending will go for accommodation. Regardless, the German budget will remain at a surplus.
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